Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 73363.404527 77535.549054 81712.594903 86205.308539 90897.854269 95651.446266 100827.850917
2025-12-28 67052.793311 73442.676665 80022.939674 87296.345263 95101.151359 103215.240691 112279.147017
2026-01-04 62504.855728 70427.363541 78769.147460 88187.935351 98507.471930 109450.377435 121911.896352
2026-01-11 58830.831484 67889.727039 77607.523101 88775.980242 101224.440938 114640.302619 130158.620060
2026-01-18 55546.312258 65468.986852 76289.755226 88919.981927 103209.262486 118825.508533 137132.580969
2026-01-25 52806.635571 63442.206182 75213.510189 89145.176146 105117.402378 122789.741930 143752.630246
2026-02-01 50236.963676 61439.261892 74009.336424 89077.847800 106564.791715 126132.018383 149591.808499
2026-02-08 48417.089602 60188.069740 73563.131102 89784.045987 108816.393436 130329.473265 156369.979780
2026-02-15 46370.711853 58559.962925 72578.700658 89770.521891 110154.434273 133417.465754 161831.626662
2026-02-22 45207.267310 57915.484855 72692.244999 90996.703951 112905.127505 138123.716439 169175.443036
2026-03-01 43925.778088 57061.404897 72497.878342 91805.326138 115123.561809 142185.890061 175763.858324
2026-03-08 42283.208611 55694.655242 71622.340647 91735.914216 116244.810919 144919.024614 180764.669896
2026-03-15 40881.742245 54587.908146 71034.803005 91999.175980 117766.732984 148149.672169 186407.284439
2026-03-22 40139.163801 54272.385102 71393.302519 93404.000843 120671.332428 153050.893727 194090.132199
2026-03-29 39253.024258 53735.954594 71445.331871 94404.353091 123066.385970 157337.784817 201052.002178
2026-04-05 38251.967400 53012.085632 71227.907397 95039.282787 124990.755089 161046.296948 207322.262314
2026-04-12 37089.822127 52037.490385 70655.929476 95194.537603 126292.983526 163979.842652 212646.269625
2026-04-19 36031.104575 51160.038337 70173.799519 95433.313183 127677.240329 167003.288584 218084.633002
2026-04-26 34893.597434 50140.379504 69474.141600 95362.282922 128645.614289 169496.759077 222865.765402
2026-05-03 34165.866153 49640.024310 69424.446719 96108.939091 130641.461451 173271.325390 229257.394848
2026-05-10 33156.182319 48728.157740 68808.122321 96094.649405 131644.754423 175791.423553 234081.807537
2026-05-17 32732.060974 48593.979343 69202.061083 97390.881630 134333.624147 180447.510620 241621.006569
2026-05-24 32151.747619 48225.821471 69269.296055 98245.601981 136446.754828 184380.122113 248266.723509